Featured News

More Articles  Printer Friendly Version

 

A Tale Of Two Economies

It's not the best of times, nor the worst. But the latest data is a tale of two of U.S. economies.

From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged. In July, manufacturing activity slipped further, to 51.2%, according to the newly released monthly survey data of purchasing managers from the Institute of Supply Management.

This data series is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. At 51.2%, the manufacturing economy inched closer to indicating a recession could be on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the survey of purchasing managers at non-manufacturing companies, those in the service economy, declined to 53.7% in July. It too has plunged from its record level of 61.6% in September, but it's still well within its normal range.

The "Service Economy" is not gangbusters, like the tax-reform fueled peak in September 2018, but it's doing okay.

The service economy represents about 88% of U.S. growth. It's indicating growth is ahead, though less robust than a year ago.

Continued growth is confirmed by the survey of 60 economists conducted in early August by The Wall Street Journal.

The consensus forecast of 60 economic professionals for the next five quarters is for an average quarterly growth rate of 1.8%. That may seem paltry compared to the 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, but it aligns with the expected long-term growth rate of the non-partisan government forecast published by the Congressional Budget Office.

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index of large public companies closed the week at 2,918.65, about 3% less than its all-time high.


This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial or tax advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Tax laws are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. No one can predict the future of the stock market or any investment, and past performance is never a guarantee of your future results.


Email this article to a friend


Index
Find The Major Economic Trend Hidden In This Picture
Is The New Record High In Stocks Irrational?
Stocks Break New Record; Economic Outlook Clears
Despite Frights, Can The Expansion Continue?
Retail Sales Coverage Reflected The Narrow View Of The Media
Small-Business Optimism Declines But Remains High
Analysis Of New Employment, Manufacturing & Service Economy Data
Quarter Ends Well Despite Trade War, Inverted Yield Curve & Political Crisis
No Recession But A Slower Pace Of Growth
Fickle Financial Headlines Brighten
Economy Gets Bad Press Again
Europe's Growth Problem And Your Portfolio
Stocks Dropped 2.6% On Friday, As Reality Gap Seemed To Widen
A Prudent Perspective On Recent Volatility
Amid Worries, New Equity Risk Premium Data Explained

This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Blattel & Associates and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

©2019 Advisor Products Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The articles and opinions on this site are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. We suggest that you consult your advisor with regard to your individual situation.
All summaries/prices/quotes/statistics presented here have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
When you access certain links on the Blattel & Associates website you may leave this website. We do not endorse the content of such websites nor the products, services or other items offered through such websites. Any links to other sites are not intended as referrals or endorsements, but are merely provided to the users of the Blattel & Associates website for convenience and informational purposes.
Robert Blattel is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM practitioner. The partners of Blattel & Associates are not registered in all states. Please contact us to verify availability in your state. This is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
CFP® and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM are certification marks owned by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. These marks are awarded to individuals who successfully complete the CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Cutter & Company Brokerage, Inc., 15415 Clayton Road, Ballwin, Missouri 63011 * (636) 537-8770. Member FINRA/SIPC.
Privacy Policy can be read at http://www.cutterco.com/privacypolicy.htm.